Tail uncertainty analysis in complex systems
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Tail Uncertainty Analysis in Complex Systems
The paper presents an efficient computational method for estimating the tails of a target variable Z which is related to other set of bounded variables X = (Xi,. . . , X,) by an increasing (decreasing) relation Z = h( XI, . . . , X,). To this aim, variables Xi, i = 1,. . . , n are sequentially simulated in such a manner that Z = h( xi, . . . , xi-i, Xi, . . . ,X,) is guaranteed to be in the tai...
متن کاملUncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Models of Complex Systems
Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (i) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic (Type B) uncertainty in analysis inputs, (ii) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (iii) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (iv) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and ...
متن کاملAnalysis of Uncertainty Information for Several Kinds of Complex Systems
In this paper, three kinds of uncertain complex system are discussed by analyzing uncertainty of information, and their respective connotation characteristic along with the main difference and connection are elaborated from theory method, which make it convenient for people to best distinguish and handle uncertain problem. Finally, a kind of uncertain information system just born and a vital pr...
متن کاملModeling the Uncertainty in Complex Engineering Systems
Existing procedures for model validation have been deemed inadequate for many engineering systems. The reason of this inadequacy is due to the high degree of complexity of the physical mechanisms that govern these systems. It is proposed in this paper to shift the attention from modeling the engineering system itself to modeling the uncertainty that underlies its behavior. A mathematical framew...
متن کاملTackling uncertainty in safety risk analysis in process systems: The case of gas pressure reduction stations
Industrial plants are subjected to very dangerous events. Therefore, it is very essential to carry out an efficient risk and safety analysis. In classical applications, risk analysis treats event probabilities as certain data, while there is much penurious knowledge and uncertainty in generic failure data that will lead to biased and inconsistent alternative estimates. Then, in order to achieve...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Artificial Intelligence
سال: 1997
ISSN: 0004-3702
DOI: 10.1016/s0004-3702(97)00052-0